Can a Fragmented ANC Save President Ramaphosa Again?

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing another impeachment inquiry, and this time his party’s internal divisions are more apparent than ever. The African National Congress (ANC), once a stalwart supporter of Ramaphosa, now finds itself in a precarious position as its own members question their leader’s integrity.

The Phala Phala scandal has been dogging Ramaphosa since 2022, and the latest twist comes as no surprise to those familiar with South African politics. The ANC’s dominance in parliament has been waning, and internal divisions are now on full display. With the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) making it clear they will not vote for an impeachment without a thorough investigation, the stage is set for a showdown between Ramaphosa and his own party.

The Constitutional Court’s ruling last year, which overturned the “No” vote by lawmakers in 2022 on whether to start an impeachment process, was a major blow to Ramaphosa. However, he has now opted to challenge the proceedings, signaling that he is willing to take his chances with the courts rather than facing a parliamentary inquiry.

While some see this move as a clever ploy by Ramaphosa to buy time and salvage his reputation, others view it as a desperate attempt to cling to power. Either way, the outcome remains far from certain. The ANC’s fragmented nature means that even if Ramaphosa manages to secure the necessary two-thirds majority in parliament, there are no guarantees of success.

The current state of affairs is eerily reminiscent of 2022, when the ANC defeated an impeachment motion with a narrow margin. However, this time around, the stakes are higher and the opposition is more united than ever. The DA’s statement on May 12 urging Ramaphosa to bring his review application “with due haste” has set the tone for what promises to be a protracted and contentious process.

The Phala Phala scandal represents a symptom of deeper rot within the ANC and South African politics as a whole. The alleged theft of $4 million from Ramaphosa’s private farm, followed by his own admission that he had $580,000 on the premises, has sparked widespread outrage. Beneath the surface lies a complex web of corruption and malfeasance, with leaked documents revealing security officials’ involvement in unlawful arrests in Namibia adding to the stench of corruption surrounding Ramaphosa’s administration.

Many South Africans are calling for his head, citing not just the scandal itself but also the ANC’s pattern of shielding its leaders from accountability. The current government of national unity, formed after the 2024 general election, has only added to the complexity of the situation. With multiple parties vying for power and influence, the ANC’s hold on parliament is tenuous at best.

The DA’s insistence that they will not vote for an impeachment without a thorough investigation may seem like a clever ploy to stall proceedings, but it also highlights the deep-seated divisions within the opposition. Ramaphosa’s fate remains tied to the fortunes of his party and the outcome of the impeachment inquiry. Will he manage to rally support from within the ANC, or will he succumb to the mounting pressure from both inside and outside his party?

The road ahead will be fraught with challenges and uncertainties. As Ramaphosa prepares to face the music in parliament, it’s worth considering what this means for him and the ANC as a whole. Will he emerge from this ordeal with his reputation intact, or will he become the latest casualty of South Africa’s ongoing struggle against corruption? The answer lies not just in the outcome of the impeachment inquiry but also in the long game of politics.

With Ramaphosa’s own coalition partner questioning his integrity and calling for a thorough investigation, it’s clear that his position is precarious at best. Will he manage to rally support from within the ANC, or will he succumb to the mounting pressure? The outcome remains far from certain, but one thing is clear – this saga has only just begun.

As South Africa waits with bated breath for the next chapter in this saga, Ramaphosa’s future hangs precariously in the balance. Will he emerge unscathed, or will the weight of public opinion finally catch up with him? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain – this story will continue to unfold for weeks and months to come.

The stakes are high, the tension palpable, and the outcome far from certain. As South Africa watches its leader dance on the edge of power, it’s hard not to wonder: what next for Ramaphosa?